BC Copper 2601 fluctuated upward to close higher, with tight supply of non-US commodities supporting the rise. [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2601 contract opened at 84,800 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward at the start of the session, dipping to 84,090 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward. After the daytime session opened, it moved sideways. Following the afternoon session opening, the center of copper prices gradually shifted higher, testing 86,790 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 85,960 yuan/mt, a gain of 2.02%. Open interest reached 3,277 lots, increasing by 45 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 1.05 lots. From a macro perspective, the US recorded its fastest GDP growth in two years for Q3, but the consumer confidence index declined for the fifth consecutive month. Bets on the US Fed cutting interest rates next year continued to heat up, boosting pressure on the US dollar, which fell below the 98 mark, providing a boost to copper prices. Meanwhile, COMEX copper inventories hit a record high, intensifying market concerns about tight supply in non-US regions and further fueling the rise in copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply-wise, spot supply of copper cathode is currently ample, and suppliers are actively selling, but domestic and imported supply additions are limited. Social inventory in the Shanghai area increased only slightly, restricting the overall increase in available spot supply. Demand side, performance was weak; after copper prices broke through high levels, downstream purchasing sentiment remained bleak.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2601 contract settled at 95,860 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2601 contract price of 85,960 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 97,134 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2601 contract and BC copper was -1,274, maintaining an inverted spread which narrowed compared to the previous day.